Il prezzo risulta ragionevole e adeguato alle caratteristiche dell’OPL 245, ai termini contrattuali e all'evoluzione storica del mercato petrolifero. È FALSO che il costo sia stato sovrastimato.
Nella sezione dell’analisi della OpenEconomics dedicata alla valutazione del prezzo pagato da Eni, l’offerta economica risulta congrua se si considera il valore del campo esplorativo 245 e degli investimenti necessari per poterlo mettere in produzione. L’importo finale corrisposto da Eni al GFN, formulato all’esito di un esame approfondito sotto i profili geologico, tecnico ed economico, tiene inoltre in considerazione l’evoluzione storica del mercato petrolifero nigeriano e internazionale.
D’altra parte, il prezzo della transazione di 1,09 miliardi, al netto del signature bonus, è uguale alla valutazione dell’OPL 245 effettuata da IHS per Shell nell’arbitrato del 2009 contro il GFN quando la compagnia anglo-olandese non aveva certo interesse a sottostimare il bene che reclamava.
Nel dettaglio, secondo OpenEconomics con l’IRR (Internal Rate of Return) dell’investimento all’11,5%, il valore dell’accordo si situa tra il minimo accettabile dal GFN, pari a 1,241 miliardi di $, e il massimo pagabile dal concessionario, pari a 2,307 miliardi. Dunque di poco inferiore al valore mediano. Con un IRR del 12,5%, il valore si situa tra il minimo citato e un massimo di 1,929 miliardi di dollari, ben sopra il valore mediano.
OpenEconomics - “Blocco OPL245. Valutazione del prezzo pagato” (marzo 2019)
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