Business Outlook 2021

Business and financial outlook 2023

Management expectations for our business operations are provided below.

Business and financial outlook 2023

The Company is issuing the following updated operational and financial guidance for the full year based on information to date and management’s judgement subject to the potential risks and uncertainties of the scenario.

  • E&P: Hydrocarbon production for 2023 is confirmed in the range of 1.63-1.67 million boe/d at the Company’s price scenario of $85/bbl. In Q2 2023 production is forecast at 1.6 million boe/d due to planned maintenance taking place mainly in the quarter.
  • E&P: Exploration target of 700 mln boe of discovered resources is confirmed
  • GGP: narrowed adjusted EBIT guidance to be in the range of €2.0 bln – €2.2 bln for the year, vs. the initial guidance of €1.7 bln - €2.2 bln.
  • Plenitude & Power: Plenitude adjusted EBITDA confirmed higher than €0.7 bln.
  • Sustainable Mobility, Refining and Chemicals: Sustainable Mobility EBITDA more than €0.9 bln, better than planned. Downstream pro-forma EBIT expected at €1.0 bln - €1.1 bln, consistent with prior guidance at a constant exchange rate scenario.
  • Financials: Group adjusted EBIT and cash flow[1] expected to be €12 bln and over €16 bln, respectively, an improvement versus the original guidance at the same scenario.[2]
  • Capex: capex is now expected to be around €9.2 bln, lower than original guidance at €9.5 bln, taking into account a stronger Euro. Additional potential for lower capex is retained from continued optimization and flexibility.
  • Balance Sheet: Leverage is expected to remain within the stated range of 10-20%.
  • Shareholder Distribution: Full year dividend of €0.94 per share is confirmed pending authorization at the Annual General Meeting on May 10th, 2023. The planned €2.2 bln share buy-back is confirmed, also pending authorization from the AGM for a total of up to €3.5 bln.


[1]  Before working capital movements.

[2]  Updated 2023 Scenario is: Brent 85 $/bbl (unchanged), SERM 8 $/bbl (from 7 $/bbl), PSV 529 €/kmc (from 970 €/kmc) and average EUR/USD exchange rate: 1.08 (from 1.03).