Business Outlook 2021

Business and financial outlook 2022

Management expectations for our business operations are provided below.

Business and financial outlook 2022

The Company is issuing the following updated operational and financial guidance for the full year based on information available to date, management’s judgement of potential risks and uncertainties and assuming no material disruptions of Russian gas flows from our scenario:

  • E&P: hydrocarbon production is expected at 1.63 million boe/d, in line with previous guidance of 1.67 million boe/d once adjusted for worsening force majeure impact mainly related to Nigeria, lower contribution from Kazakhstan due to unplanned events in Kashagan as well as for lower production from Norway; guidance is at the Company’s updated price deck of 100 $/bbl.
  • E&P: around 750 million boe of new exploration resources are expected to be discovered in 2022.
  • GGP: updated guidance of adjusted full year EBIT higher than €1.8 billion, incorporates the performance of the third quarter driven by the high volatility and the fourth quarter expectation impacted by lower imported Russian volumes than previously assumed.
  • Plenitude & Power: reaffirming Plenitude’s EBITDA guidance, expected to be higher than €0.6 billion. We also confirm guidance of more than 2 GW of installed renewable generation capacity by year-end.
  • Downstream: adjusted EBIT (Versalis and pro-forma R&M with ADNOC) is raised to €2.5 billion vs previous guidance of €1.8-2.0 billion.
  • Our main price sensitivities foresee a variation of €130 million in free cash flow for each one-dollar change in the price of Brent crude oil and around €700 million for a 5 USD/cent movement in the USD/EUR cross rate vs our new assumption of 1.05 USD/EUR for 2022 and considering 100 $/bbl Brent price.
  • Adjusted cash flow before working capital at replacement cost is now expected to be €20 billion at 100$ per barrel of Brent crude oil, vs our previous guidance of €20 billion at 105 $/bbl.
  • Organic capex is seen at €8.3 billion, in line with previous guidance.
  • Buyback: the program of €2.4 billion is expected to be completed by year end.
  • 2022 leverage ante IFRS 16 is seen at 0.15 at our price assumption.