Business Outlook 2021

Business and financial outlook 2021

Management expectations for our business operations are provided below.

Outlook 2021

  • FY 2021 cash flow from operations before changes in working capital at replacement cost expected to be above €10 billion at a Brent scenario of 65 $/bbl and assuming a SERM benchmark refining margin slightly in negative territory.
  • Reaffirming the guidance for hydrocarbon production at about 1.7 million boe/d for the FY 2021. In the third quarter hydrocarbon production is expected at 1.68 million boe/d.
  • Fast growing renewable installed and under construction capacity: expected to be 2 GW at year end, a strong increase from the previous outlook of about 1 GW. Leveraging recently acquired assets, installed capacity is expected to increase from a previous target of 0.7 GW to 1.2 GW at year end 2021.
  • All the other targets are reaffirmed as previously guided:
    • 2021 organic capex expected at approximately €6 billion, of which approximately €4.5 billion in the E&P segment;
    • about 500 million boe of new explorative resources to be discovered in 2021;
    • GGP: adjusted EBIT expected to reach breakeven despite a worsening trading environment. Expected about €200 million of free cash flow from this segment in 2021;
    • Eni gas e luce & Renewables adjusted EBIT projected at €350 million, cash flow from operations expected at approximately €400 million;
    • Downstream: pro-forma adjusted EBIT at about €400 million. The greater portion of this result is related to the Chemical segment, offsetting R&M result affected by slightly negative SERM refining margins;
    • Organic leverage expected lower than 0.3 at year end, at a Brent price of 65 $/bbl and a slightly negative SERM refining margin.