The Company is issuing the following operational and financial guidance for the FY ’22 based on information available to date, management’s judgement of the possible risks and uncertainties associated with the ongoing war in Ukraine and assuming no material disruptions in Russian gas flow:
- E&P: Hydrocarbon production is confirmed as expected at 1.7 million boe/d at the Company’s price deck of 80 $/bbl in 2022.
- GGP: Revised upwardly the guidance of adjusted Ebit now forecast at around €1.2 billion vs a previous target of €0.9 billion considering the expected evolution of the market.
- Our main price sensitivities foresee a variation of €140 million in free cash flow for each one-dollar change in the price of Brent crude oil and around €600 million for a 5 USD/cent movement in the USD/EUR cross rate vs our new assumption of 1.115 USD/EUR for 2022 and considering 90$/bbl Brent price.
- Plenitude & Power: Plenitude EBITDA is expected higher than €0.6 billion in line with our guidance. We confirm our guidance of more than 2 GW of installed capacity of renewable generation at 2022 year-end (at 100%). We also confirm our plan to list on the Milan Stock Exchange our subsidiary Plenitude through an IPO within 2022 subject to market conditions.
- Downstream: Adjusted Ebit (R&M with ADNOC pro-forma and Versalis) is raised to positive from our previous expectation of negative.
- Adjusted cash flow before working capital at replacement cost is expected to be €16 billion at 90 $/bbl (from more than €15 billion previously).
- Organic capex is seen at €8 billion in line with our original guidance of €7.7 billion assuming the EUR vs USD exchange rate of our initial planning assumptions.
- Cash neutrality is expected at a Brent price of around 46 $/bbl.
- Leverage ante IFRS 16 is seen well below our 0.2 ceiling at 2022 year-end.