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Outlook 2024
Full year guidance and increased capacity confirmed for Enilive and Plenitude; upside to E&P and GGP performance expectations
- Leveraging on the positive operating performance E&P: full-year hydrocarbon production is expected towards the top of the anticipated range of 1.69 - 1.71 mln boe/d at the forecast Brent price of 86 $/bbl.
- GGP: proforma adjusted EBIT for the full year is raised to around €1 bln.
- Enilive and Plenitude:
- confirmed proforma adjusted EBITDA of approximately €1 bln for each segment despite a lower market environment.
- confirmed installed renewable capacity to reach 4 GW by 2024 year-end (+30% vs the previous year).
Financial targets raised and Capex plan on track
- Group financials based on Eni scenario: the Group proforma adjusted EBIT guidance is raised to around €15 bln; adjusted CFFO before working capital is expected to be over €14 bln for the full year.
- Organic Capex: projected as planned at about €9 bln for the full year. Including an expected upwardly revised contribution from the ongoing divestment plan, capex net of proceeds from disposals are now streamlined to below €6 bln.
Shareholder Returns: 6% increase in interim dividend and increased pace in the 2024 buyback
- Next quarterly dividend: following Shareholders' approval of a dividend of €1 per share for fiscal year 2024, a 6% increase over 2023, the first 2024 quarterly instalment of €0.25 per share is due to be paid on September 25, 2024, with September 23, 2024 being the ex-dividend date, as resolved by the Board of Directors yesterday.
- Following Shareholders' approval of the new buyback plan of up to €3.5 bln, management's 2024 plan for a share buyback of €1.6 bln is confirmed but will assume a quicker pace in stock repurchases compared with the previous assumptions.
- Moreover, in line with our distribution policy, given the lower expected debt in the light of the progress of the M&A, we will be able in the third quarter, to evaluate a further raise of the distribution share up to the maximum limit of 35% of the budgeted CFFO1 which corresponds to a potential buyback value of additional €500 mln.
Progress of divestment program ahead of plan enabling debt reduction program
- Leverage for the year is expected well below 20%, versus an original expectation between 20-25%. On a proforma basis, taking into account of identified but not yet completed transactions, leverage could be around 15%.
- The Group disposal plan is proceeding faster than expected with excellent visibility of almost all the €8 bln net disposal proceeds over the four-year plan.
The above-described outlook is a forward-looking statement based on information to date and management’s judgement and is subject to the potential risks and uncertainties of the scenario (see our disclaimer on page 17).
[1] On an adjusted basis, before working capital changes.
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Scenario Assumptions
| 4YP SCENARIO | 2024 |
|---|---|
| Brent dated ($/bbl) | 86 |
| Foreign exchange average ($/€) | 1.075 |
| Std. Eni Refining Margin ($/bbl) | 6.8 |
| PSV (€/MWh) | 33 |
Last update: 26 July 2024
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