Business and Financial Outlook 2023

Business and financial outlook 2023

The Company is issuing the following 2023 updated operational and financial guidance:  

  • E&P: 2023 guidance for hydrocarbon production is narrowed to between 1.64-1.66 mln boe/d (vs. previous guidance 1.63-1.67 mln boe/d).
  • E&P: following the recent exploration success (Egypt and Indonesia), the target initially set of resources additions of 700 mln boe will be exceeded.
  • GGP: the previously raised guidance of FY adjusted EBIT in the €2.7 bln - €3 bln range is confirmed.
  • Plenitude: proforma adjusted EBITDA guidance is raised to around €0.9 bln, higher than the initial planning assumptions for the year (€0.7 bln).
  • Enilive, Refining and Chemicals: Enilive proforma adjusted EBITDA is seen at around €1 bln, higher than the prior guidance of more than €0.9 bln. Downstream proforma adjusted EBIT[1] is now expected at about €1 bln, higher than the mid-year guidance of €0.8 bln.
  • Financials: Group adjusted EBIT guidance is raised to around €14 bln, higher than the mid-year guidance of €12 bln, reflecting improved market conditions[2] and incorporating an improved underlying performance of around €2.6 bln, €0.6 bln higher than the mid-year estimate. Consistently, we are now revising upwardly the projections of cash flow from operations before working capital to reach around €16.5 bln (vs. previous guidance €15.5-€16 bln). As of September 30, 2023, we have delivered about 80% of the Group revised yearly guidance of adjusted EBIT and cash flow. Those projections are exposed to the volatility of hydrocarbons prices; management is currently estimating an impact of about €130 mln on cash flow for each one-dollar change in Brent crude oil prices (yearly basis).
  • Capex: estimated at about €9 bln for the FY, representing a saving of about 6% from original plans due to continuing optimization and efficiency measures.
  • Balance Sheet: leverage is expected to remain within the stated range of 10% - 20%.
  • Shareholder Remuneration: as authorized by the Shareholders Annual General Meeting (AGM) on May 10, 2023, a dividend of €0.94 per share will be paid for fiscal year 2023 in four instalments: the first payment was made in September 2023 and the following are due in November 2023 (€0.23 per share[3]), March 2024 and May 2024. The planned €2.2 bln share buyback also commenced in May after authorization at the AGM of a total of up to €3.5 bln and is expected to be completed within April 2024, with an accelerated pace in the final months of 2023 compared to initial plans.

The above-described outlook is a forward-looking statement based on information to date and management’s judgement and is subject to the potential risks and uncertainties of the scenario (see our disclaimer on page 18).

[1] The proforma adjusted Ebit includes the proportional consolidation of Eni’s main JVs and associates. A reconciliation to adjusted Ebit of consolidated subsidiaries and a breakdown by segment are disclosed in the notes below.

[2] Updated 2023 Scenario is: Brent 84 $/bbl (previously $80/bbl); SERM 10.4 $/bbl (previously 8 $/bbl); PSV 474 €/kmc (from 484 €/kmc); average EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.08 (unchanged).

[3] Payment date: November 22, 2023 (Ex-dividend date/record date: November 20/November 21, 2023, respectively).

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