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Outlook 2024
E&P results expected to meet expectations, with upside to GGP performance. Transition satellites performing well despite weaker market environment. Underlying financial performance seen as better than previous in a constant environment
- E&P: full-year hydrocarbon production is expected at around 1.70 mln boe/d at the forecast average Brent price of 83 $/bbl.
- GGP: expectation of proforma adjusted EBIT for the full year is raised to around €1.1 bln.
- Enilive and Plenitude:
- confirmed proforma adjusted EBITDA of approximately €1 bln for each segment despite a lower market environment.
- Installed renewable capacity to reach 4 GW by 2024 year-end (+30% vs the previous year).
Reaffirmed FY Group consolidated results expectations, net of scenario effects, and capex plan guidance
- Group consolidated results based on the Eni scenario1: Accounting for a revised Brent scenario of 83 $/bbl (as well as other variables (weaker USD, SERM, etc.) the management is now expecting the FY Group proforma adjusted EBIT and the adjusted CFFO before working capital at €14 bln and €13.5 bln, respectively.
- Organic Capex projected at below €9 bln for the full year. On a proforma basis, capex net of proceeds from disposals is continued to be seen at below €6 bln.
Shareholder Returns: 2024 buyback increased by €0.4 bln. Interim dividend confirmed, up 6% on 2023
- Next quarterly dividend: following Shareholders' approval of a dividend of €1 per share for fiscal year 2024, a 6% increase over 2023, the second quarterly instalment of €0.25 per share is due to be paid on November 20, 2024, with November 18, 2024 being the ex-dividend date, as resolved by the Board of Directors yesterday.
- In consideration of the disposal plan progressing ahead of our initial plan, we confirm to further raise the 2024 share buyback. The 2024 buyback is now expected to be €2 bln, a 25% increase on the previous guidance of €1.6 bln and more than 80% higher than the original plan for the year. This will bring total distribution to around 38% of CFFO2.
Accelerated deleveraging supported by faster pace in disposal plan
- Leverage expected at year end on a proforma basis, considering the portfolio actions agreed but not closed, is expected to be towards the lower end of a possible 15%-20% range.
- The Group disposal plan is proceeding faster than expected with excellent visibility of almost all the €8 bln net disposal proceeds over the four-year plan.
The above-described outlook is a forward-looking statement based on information to date and management’s judgement and is subject to the potential risks and uncertainties of the scenario.
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- (1) Updated 2024 Scenario is: Brent 83 $/bbl (previously $86/bbl); SERM 4.7 $/bbl from 6.8 $/bbl; PSV 35 €/MWh (vs 33 €/MWh) and average EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.085 (vs 1.075).
- (2) On an adjusted basis, before working capital changes.
Last update: 25 October 2024
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