World Energy Review

In 2024, the global gas markets continued to be characterized by an unstable balance. The decline recorded in the first five months of the year - also due to mild weather conditions and record storage levels at the end of the winter season - was partially offset, in the second half of 2024, by sustained demand, especially in Asia, and supply-side uncertainties (such as geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East, and reduced imports from Norway).

On a full-year basis, 2024 was characterized by prices at major international hubs which recorded an average decline of approximately 14% compared to 2023:

• In Europe, the TTF price averaged $10.9 per MBtu, down from $12.8 per MBtu in 2023, fluctuating between $7.3–15 per MBtu.
• In Asia, the average spot LNG price was $12.1 per MBtu, compared to $13.7 per MBtu in 2023.
• In the United States, Henry Hub prices averaged $2.2/MBtu in 2024, down from $2.5 per MBtu in 2023.

Global gas demand increased by approximately 108 Bcm (+2.7%) compared to 2023, reaching around 4,110 Bcm. This growth was primarily driven by China, followed by Russia and the United States, while demand in Europe remained relatively stable.

Global gas production also increased, albeit at a more moderate pace, rising by 1.9% (around 80 Bcm) compared to 2023. The most significant growth was observed in non-OECD countries.

In the LNG sector, 2024 saw an expansion in both liquefaction and regasification capacities worldwide. Liquefaction capacity reached approximately 660 Bcm (+1.4%), while regasification capacity rose to around 1,500 Bcm (+4%). The most notable liquefaction expansion occurred in Indonesia. In terms of regasification, the largest increases were recorded in Asia (+40 Bcm, particularly in China) and in Europe (+18 Bcm), with new capacity added in Germany, France, and Spain.

In 2024, the installation of intermittent renewable energy sources (solar photovoltaic and wind) continued to grow at a steady pace, with an increase of 560 GW compared to 2023 - a new global record - bringing the total installed capacity to nearly 3,000 GW worldwide.

Solar power remained the primary driver of renewable energy growth in 2024. Newly installed capacity reached around 450 GW, marking a 32% increase compared to 2023. China led this surge by adding 278 GW (+46% compared to 2023), with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 62% from 2010 to 2024. The United States followed with 38 GW of new capacity (+28% from 2023). By the end of 2024, the total cumulative solar capacity had slightly exceeded 1,850 GW, with China and the U.S. accounting for 48% and 9% of global capacity, respectively.

Wind power also experienced significant growth, although at a slower pace. In 2024, wind capacity increased by 113 GW compared to 2023, reflecting an 11% rise and bringing the total to 1,133 GW by year-end. Again, China and the United States stood out as the leading players, holding 46% and 14% of global wind capacity, respectively. Notably, China alone contributed over 70% of the newly installed wind capacity during the year.

Critical minerals play a fundamental role in the development of key technologies related to the energy transition. Elements such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, manganese, and graphite are essential for battery production, while rare earths are crucial for wind energy, and silicon is essential for solar technology.

However, the extraction of these resources is highly concentrated in a limited number of countries. This concentration poses a significant risk to supply security and undermines traditional market competition. In recent years, many critical raw materials have experienced sharp price increases, driven by a rising demand associated with the energy transition.

In terms of reserves, cobalt has the highest concentration - with over 50% located in the Democratic Republic of Congo—and about 40% of rare earths are found in China.

Production is also geographically concentrated. For example, 78% of graphite is produced in China, while 76% of cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo. Additionally, 69% of rare earths are extracted in China, and over 60% of nickel is produced in Indonesia. Overall, in 2024, the production of critical minerals increased by an average of 5.5% compared to the previous year, with cobalt showing the most significant growth (+21%). This increase was partly offset by a decline in manganese and nickel production.