In February, we communicated the strategic roadmap towards 2050 that will take our company through the energy transition.
In line with this Strategy, in June, we announced the new organization, creating two new integrated business groups:
Natural Resources will develop the upstream oil & gas portfolio sustainably, promoting energy efficiency and carbon capture. The business group will be integrated along the gasvalue chain, from exploration to development to wholesale via pipeline or LNG, leveraging our technical and commercial competences. In addition this business will lead CCUS, Forestry, Sustainability and Environmental Remediation: key activities for the sustainable delivery of decarbonized products.
The second business group, Energy Evolution, is dedicated to supporting the evolution of the company’s power generation, product transformation and marketing from fossil to bio, blue and green. Thanks to the business group’s coordination, the Company will be able to develop these activities in an integrated way, both geographically and in terms of business lines, maximizing results in terms of product development, customer service and profitability.
Alongside corporate functions, the business groups will be supported by a new Technology, R&D and Digital function.
Our organization will deliver a better balanced portfolio, reducing the exposure to the volatility of hydrocarbon prices, to become a leader in the decarbonization process.
The New Eni: Organizational Structure
Our long term strategy remains unchanged and our transformation is irreversible. The recent events related to the Covid-19 pandemic emphasize the need to accelerate along this path to deliver a more sustainable Eni.
This drove the capital allocation for the four year plan and will deliver a significant reduction in our carbon footprint. Our targets imply also that Eni will be Scope 1,2 and 3 net emissions neutral in Europe by 2050.
Let’s now turn to the actions we have taken on capex and costs for 2020 and 2021.
We reacted to the pandemic immediately: in just 1 month we declared our first set of actions and have conducted a deep analysis to further cut our costs. In the meantime we have also reviewed our scenario assuming $40/bbl Brent this year growing to $60/bbl in 2023.
The result is that today we are enhancing our targets, both for capex reduction and cost optimization.
Overall in 2020 and 2021 we aim at an average capex cut of over 30% and € 2.8 bln of overall cost optimizations, of which 25-30% are structural. Together this represents almost 8 bln euro of reductions compared to the original plan.
With the expectation of Brent at $40 per barrel in 2020, we will keep capex at just over €5 billion. In line with our gradually rising expectations for Bent, our Capex will flexibly increase from 2021, to reach around 8 bln euro in 2022, comparable to our original pre-Covid plan.
The mix inside the capex plan will change, accelerating the energy transition.
The new plan, versus the original one envisages:
in Upstream an almost 6 bln euro reduction
By contrast in the Green businesses, capex will grow by 0.8 bln euro, mainly dedicated to Bio Refining, Renewables and an expansion in the Retail segment.
Overall in the plan, Green capex will account for 17% of the total (versus 12% in the original plan) reaching 26% in 2023 (versus 20% in the original plan). The weight of green investments will become increasingly more important as we move towards the rebalancing of our portfolio.
Production in 2020 is confirmed at around 1.71 to 1.76 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, after the OPEC+ cuts. The 2019 – 2023 CAGR will be in the range of 2%. If the scenario proves to be stronger than expected in 2021, we’ll have the flexibility to reactivate some production optimization actions.
Growth in the medium to long term is a function of the Upstream capex profile. In terms of project development, the new 2020-2023 capex plan includes a number of revisions, impacting especially the first 2 years, as we postponed a number of FIDs.
Exploration will target 2 billion barrels of new discoveries in the period at a leading cost of 1.6 $ per barrel. In exploration, no activity has been cancelled but we have rephased 50% of the investments planned for 2020. 2021 will see the drilling of part of the wells we postponed in 2020.
We will focus our upstream on gas, and make its production profile more flexible and more sustainable with the use of carbon capture and offsetting with forestry conservation projects.
Turning to the mid-downstream, we confirm the development of our decarbonized businesses, further accelerated by the increase of green capex mentioned before, mainly dedicated to Bio Refining, Renewables and Retail expansion.
At the next 2021 Strategy, we will give further details on the specific upgraded targets within these green businesses.
Watch the presentation, download the documents and follow the Q&A session - Update 2020 post COVID-19: the emergency led us to implement specific actions, which were communicated in the first quarter.
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