The new Strategy 2021-2024 improves and accelerates Eni’s transformation reinforcing the roadmap towards 2050. We remain committed to become a leader in producing clean energy and offering our customer a full set of decarbonized products. We aim to maximise value creation for all our stakeholders.
Watch the video of the Strategy Presentation
AN INTEGRATED, ZERO CARBON, ENERGY COMPANY
Our strategy is built on 3 key pillars:
- decarbonizing operations and products
- diversifying and expanding our businesses in retail & renewables, bio-products and circular economy
- increasing the resilience and flexibility of the company to absorb price volatility. Selective growth, increased efficiency and right-sizing will continue to ensure value and high returns in all our activities.
The 3 pillars are based on 2 solid foundations:
- minimizing environmental impact, addressing issues of social inequality and a strong governance model, in order to achieve UN’s SDGs and increase value for all our stakeholders
- technology and digitalization, to de-risk our present and accelerate our transformation.
Our Strategic Plan 2021-2024 is another step forward in boosting our transformation. We commit to the full decarbonization of all our products and processes by 2050.
NET ZERO EMISSIONS BY 2050
Eni will be carbon neutral by 2050 and this is a target, not just an aspiration. We have set this, considering all our activities and combining economic sustainability with the industrial implementation.
Our objective is to achieve Net Zero by 2050; this means decarbonizing all our processes and products, taking into account both direct and indirect GHG emissions, i.e. Scope 1, 2, 3.¹ This will involve a number of intermediate steps: taking 2018 as our baseline, we aim to reduce net GHG emissions by 25% by 2030 and by 65% by 2040. In parallel, the Net Carbon Intensity² of our processes and products, again calculated for Scope 1, 2 and 3, will see reductions of 15% by 2030, 40% by 2040 and 100% by 2050.
Decarbonization can be achieved by leveraging existing technologies that have already proved their efficacy, for example:
- carbon-free products and processes
- an increase in the natural gas component of total production
- production and distribution of bio-methane for domestic use and for transportation
- biorefineries (taking 2020 as the baseline, a doubling of production by 2024 and a fivefold increase by 2050) and circular economy projects, with an increase in the production of biogas by recycling organic and inorganic wastes
- blue and green hydrogen, used especially in our biorefineries
- projects to capture and store carbon (Carbon Capture and Storage – CCS) and projects to conserve woodlands (Forestry) in accordance with the UN’s REDD+ scheme.
At the same time, in order to calculate correctly, precisely and transparently all direct and indirect GHG Scope 1, 2 and 3 emissions, we have adopted a methodology that is both complete and comprehensive.
(1) Scope 1, 2, 3:
Scope 1 direct emissions: emissions deriving from sources that can be traced back to the company’s assets (e.g. combustion, flaring, escapes/leaks, venting)
Scope 2 indirect emissions: emissions deriving from the generation of electricity, heat and steam acquired from third parties and consumed in the company’s assets
Scope 3 indirect emissions: emissions produced at different points in the value chain, upstream and downstream of the company’s activities (e.g. by suppliers and customers)
(2) Net Carbon Intensity: the ratio between Net GHG Lifecycle Emissions (GHG Lifecycle emissions, Scope 1+2+3, associated with the supply chain of energy products sold by Eni) and the energy content of products sold by Eni, accounted for on an equity basis.
ENERGY EVOLUTION: A SELF FINANCED SUSTAINABLE TRANSFORMATION
To further maximize value generation along the whole green power chain and foster our decarbonization scope 3 targets, we have decided to merge our renewable business with our gas & power retail business. This business combination makes Eni one of the main green retail operators in the European market with 15Mln Clients and 15GW by 2030. In the plan period Retail+Renewable EBITDA will be around € 1 Bln.
To further maximise value generation all along the green energy chain and assist in the achievement of our Scope 3 decarbonization objectives, we have decided to merge our Renewables business with our Retail Gas & Power business. Over the four years of the Plan, this business combination will be accompanied by a gradual increase of installed capacity for the generation of electricity from renewable sources: from a baseline of 0.7 GW in 2021, this will increase to 4 GW in 2024 and 15 GW in 2030. At the same time, we shall continue to enlarge our customer base, which will increase from just over 10 million customers in 2021 to more than 11 million in 2024 and 15 million by 2030.
Geographically speaking, where Renewables and Retail are concerned, we shall concentrate our efforts mainly on Europe, the USA, North Africa, Australia and the Middle East.
Overall, exploiting the increase in installed capacity and the enlargement of our customer base, in the next four years the Retail + Renewables business will generate EBITDA of around €1 billion.
In Refining & Marketing, we expect to increase results in all our business lines: Bio-refining and marketing, and traditional plants. Our biorefineries will continue to contribute positively, becoming palm oil free in 2023 and with a growing contribution of feedstock coming from waste and residues.
NATURAL RESOURCES: LOWER BREAKEVEN AND CARBON FOOTPRINT
Over the last years, we have materially reinforced our upstream business, reducing its cash needs while continuing to minimize the carbon footprint.
In the 4-year plan we will further lower the price level that will be required to generate free cash flow after capex. During the plan, this will result in a drop of our upstream capex coverage by almost $10/bbl to $28/bbl.
Production will grow at an average of around 4% per year vs 2020 at the Eni scenario.
Over the next four years, we aim to enhance the resilience of our upstream business, lowering the price level necessary to generate free cash flow net of capex. In particular, we shall reduce our capex coverage¹ by 24%: from $37/bbl to $28/bbl.
We shall increase total production by around 4% per annum as compared with 2020, thanks to an increase in new production made possible by 14 principal upstream projects, which will account for more than 70% of said increase. For 2021, which is a transition year as we await the full post-Covid recovery, we are confident that we can maintain total production at around 1,700 Kboe/d. By 2024, we forecast total production approaching 2,000 Kboe/d, of which more than 50% will be from new sources. As regards the future energy mix, in the coming years we anticipate an increase in the share of natural gas. In 2024, roughly 55% of our P1² reserves will be gas, as against 50% at present.
Over the same period, as we foresee things, the price of Brent crude will increase from $50/bbl to over $61/bbl. We therefore anticipate that our cash flow from operations will increase by 20% per annum; the present increase of around 8% will in any case be maintained should the price of Brent stay flat at around $50/bbl. All in all, over the four years of the Plan, our upstream free cash flow will be in excess of €18 billion on the basis of our anticipated scenario, or €14 billion in the event of the Brent crude price remaining at $50/bbl, covering our dividend distribution requirements twice over.
(1) Capex coverage: the price of Brent crude at which upstream capex is covered by the cash flow from upstream operating activities (CFFO) themselves.
(2) P1: Proven reserves
The second main goal of Natural Resources is to minimize carbon footprint and to develop initiatives to remove CO2, such as Forestry preservation and CCS.
Eni is focusing on REDD+ initiatives to maximize the value for our stakeholders, preserve primary and secondary forests and biodiversity, mainly in Africa, South Asia and Latin America. We target to offset more than 6 MTPA of CO2 by 2024 and more than 20 MTPA by 2030.
Our CCS projects are synergic with Upstream and we aim to create worldwide storage hubs for decarbonizing our industrial activities. By 2030 we target a total storage of around 7 MTPA, with an overall gross capacity of 15 MTPA.
FINANCIAL STRATEGY: CAPITAL DISCIPLINE, STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND ENHANCED REMUNERATION POLICY
Eni’s financial strategy will be a structural component in the execution of our plan.
It will be centred on a diversified set of levers:
- our capex flexibility: focus on short cycle initiatives limiting inactive capital within 20% of our investment
- an active and dynamic portfolio management, including new business combinations; more than 2 bln € disposals in the plan to be reinvested in acquisition for selective portfolio reshaping
- a new set of financial tools, linked to our strategy execution: sustainable KPI linked bond
- a competitive and progressive distribution policy.
RESILIENT CASH GENERATION AND FLEXIBILITY
We will continue to improve our resilience along the plan period: cash neutrality, the level of price necessary to cover our capex needs and the floor dividend, will be progressively reduced below 40 $/bbl.
Eni, its people and the Board of Directors, express their strong commitment to continue to play a sustainable and innovative role in supporting social and economic development in all their activities. Our strong ESG model provides a foundation for our aim, which remains to deliver value to all our stakeholders.