Global Energy Outlook: main trends

• In 2016 oil reserves increased slightly (+0.2%) mainly due to the contribution of additional reserves in Iraq.
• World oil production remains nearly at the same level of 2015 (+0.3%).
• Along with production changes, a significant discontinuity emerges in terms of crude quality with respect to 2015.
• The surplus in the Middle East remains the highest in the regional crude oil balances and increased further in 2016.
• World oil demand grew by 1.7%, less than 2015 (2.2%) when oil prices fell dramatically.
• World refining capacity rose by 1.5 Mb/d driven by the Middle East and Asia.

In 2016 oil reserves increased slightly (+0.2%) mainly due to the contribution of additional reserves in Iraq. OPEC countries remain the biggest reserves holders (74% of world’s total) with Venezuela in first position with the large contribution from the Orinoco Belt.

World oil production remains nearly at the same level of 2015 (+0.3%). Amongst big producers United States, China and Venezuela showed the deepest decrease whilst Middle Eastern OPEC members, driven by Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, set another yearly record for growth.

Along with production changes, a significant discontinuity emerges in terms of crude quality with respect to 2015. The fall in USA tight oil drove the decrease of the Light & Sweet category, instead higher production from Middle Eastern OPEC countries drove an increase in the Medium & Sour category.

The surplus in the Middle East remains the highest in the regional crude oil balances and increased further in 2016. The deepest deficit is in the Asia Pacific region, where crude demand continues to grow, whilst North America halved its deficit due to the increase in domestic production.

World oil demand grew by 1.7%, less than 2015 (2.2%) when oil prices fell dramatically. However, growth still remained well above the five-year average of 1.5% seen in 2011-2015. For the second consecutive year, OECD gave positive support to global growth, but non OECD maintains the lion’s share with more than 75%.

World refining capacity rose by 1.5 Mb/d driven by the Middle East and Asia, which increased by 1 Mb/d as a whole. In Europe, the rationalization process that started in 2009 almost stopped thanks to a better margin environment.

Data are from the Eni annual statistical publication World Oil and Gas Review