The sources, trends and figures for future energy scenarios.
Niels Bohr, danish physicist
The forecasts made in the WEO regarding global energy and climate trends take account of energy policy measures already launched or announced and comparing three different scenarios along a time line ending in 2040:
The world of energy is being transformed and defines new scenarios and opportunities for producer and consumer countries.
The current oversupply is not a valid insurance in terms of security of supplies, due to the reduction in investments (-20% in 2015) and uncertainties surrounding the OPEC countries with the greatest potential for growth (Iraq and Iran).
Lower prices are not always positive for consuming countries: the economic benefits contrast with increasing dependence on imports from the Middle East; a significant decline in upstream investment could result in a subsequent phase of rapid price recovery.
The WEO confirms the abundance and diversification of natural gas resources but, in recent editions, it has heavily revised down growth in consumption forecasts.
The shift in the centre of gravity of the coal industry from the Atlantic to the Pacific, where consumption, production and international trade in coal will be concentrated.
A 50% increase in subsidies between 2014 and 2040 will permit a five-fold increase in electricity generation from renewables other than hydroelectric.
Should the Low Oil Price Case apply, there will be a reduction in investments in EE across the timeline of 11%, reducing the achievable energy savings by 14%.
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