Eni.it

INVESTOR RELATIONS

 

Outlook



On 12 March 2010 Paolo Scaroni, CEO, and the company's senior management presented the plan to the financial community.

Eni confirms its strategic priorities of delivering robust long-term hydrocarbon production growth superior to the average growth of its peers, and of strengthening its leadership in the European gas market, in spite of the uncertainties surrounding economic recovery and volatile energy markets.
These objectives will be pursued by leveraging on the company's unique integrated business model while maintaining a strong balance sheet and continuing to create value for shareholders.

  • Main targetsMain targets
  • Outlook 2010Outlook 2010

The main targets of the plan are:

  • Robust production growth: >2.5% CAGR to 2013
  • Enhanced leadership position in European gas: >22% market share by 2013
  • Resilient G&P earnings: €4.4 billion average EBITDA per year
  • Increased refining efficiency and higher sales in Europe: positive free cash flow from  2012
  • Efficiency program: new target of €2.4 billion of cost reductions in 2006-2013
  • Dividend growth in line with OECD inflation from 2011 at a 65$/bl scenario

 

Investment plan and efficiency program

In the 2010-2013 period, Eni plans investments of €52.8 billion, an increase of approximately 8% vs. the 2009-2012 plan. This increase will be driven entirely by the E&P sector for the development of new projects, particularly in Iraq and Venezuela, which will contribute to Eni's production growth in the four-year period and beyond.

Finally, Eni reiterates its focus on efficiency, targeting overall savings on operating costs of 2.4 billion euros by 2013, a 20% increase on the savings target in the previous plan.


 



In what remains an uncertain and volatile energy environment, Eni forecasts a modest improvement in global oil demand and a Brent price of 76$/barrel for the full year 2010. Considering ongoing trends, management expects that gas demand in Europe and Italy will recover at a faster pace than the Company's base case assumptions following the steep decline suffered in 2009 in the industrial and power generation sectors. In the refining business, underlying fundamentals are expected to remain weak as highlighted by margins volatility. Against this backdrop, key volumes trends for the year are expected to be the following:

  • Production of liquids and natural gas is forecast to be in line with 2009 (production in 2009 was 1.769 million boe/d). This estimate is based on the Company's assumption for a Brent price of 76$/barrel for the full year, the same level of OPEC restrictions as in the first half of 2010 and asset disposals underway. It excludes the effect of updating the gas conversion rate. Growth will be driven by continuing field start-ups, mainly in Italy, Congo and Norway and marginally the Zubair project in Iraq, as well as production ramp-up at the Company's recently started fields, mainly in Nigeria and Angola. These additions will be offset by mature field declines, lower gas uplifts in Libya due to oversupply conditions on the European market and rescheduling of certain projects expected in the Gulf of Mexico as consequence of the accident occurred at the BP-operated Macondo well;
  • Worldwide gas sales are forecasted to decrease compared with 2009 (approximately 104 bcm were achieved in 2009). Increasing competitive pressures, mainly in Italy, are expected to be partly offset by an expected recovery in European gas demand. Other positive trends include a benefit associated with integrating Distrigas operations and the optimization of its supply portfolio, including re-negotiation of long-term supply contracts;
  • Regulated businesses in Italy will benefit from the pre-set regulatory return on new capital expenditures and cost savings from integrating the full chain of transport, storage and distribution activities;
  • Refining throughputs on Eni's account are planned to increase compared with 2009 (actual throughputs in 2009 were 34.55 mmtonnes) due to a higher capacity utilization rate of Eni'srefineries partly offset by lowered volumes on third party refineries reflecting the Company's decision to terminate certain processing agreements. In a challenging trading environment, management forecasts an improvement in refining margins from a year ago, leveraging on better spreads between light and heavy crudes as well as initiatives for efficiency enhancement and margin expansion;
  • Retail sales of refined products in Italy and the rest of Europe are expected decline slightly from 2009 (12.02 mmtonnes in 2009) reflecting sluggish consumption. Marketing initiatives are planned in order to support sales volumes and margins in the Italian retail market and to develop the Company's market share in European markets;
  • The Engineering & Construction business is expected to see solid results due to a robust order backlog.

 

In 2010, management plans to make capital expenditures slightly higher compared with 2009 (€13.69 billion were invested in 2009) as a result of interventions aimed at optimizing production and the impact of the appreciation of the US dollar over the euro. Capital expenditures will mainly be directed to the development of oil and natural gas reserves, exploration projects, the upgrading of construction vessels and rigs, and the upgrading of natural gas transport infrastructure. Management has planned a number of measures designed to ensure the achievement of a ratio of net borrowings to total equity (leverage) which will adequately support a strong credit rating.




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Last updated on 29/07/10